Super Sunday - Mayday Risk – 04 May 2012
French and Greek Elections this Sunday have given the markets lots to fret about. Being at the heart of Europe and one half of the partnership that has driven the European project for over 60 years, attention is likely to focus on France.
Suggestions that France should tear up the Fiscal Compact have made the markets nervous about Hollande, who is favourite to win. A Sarkozy victory would be a market-friendly surprise, but Hollande is unlikely to be the disaster that the markets feared a few months ago. Either way, we feel that policy, with regard to Europe, is unlikely to be significantly different.
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Ashburton’s Perspective – April 2012 edition
Ashburton's Perspective April 2012
In this edition:
- WELCOME: what a difference a quarter makes! - By Peter Bourne.
- OUTLOOK: Long-term perspective - What drives equity bull markets? - By Tristan Hanson
- REGIONAL FOCUS: Q&A - Derry Pickford gathers insights from our regional fund managers
- EUROPEAN EQUITIES - Be greedy when others are fearful - by Terry James
- NEWS: Simon Finch runs the Tokyo marathon for charity and a team take part in the swimarathon. Plus, top decile performance for Ashburton’s European Equity Fund.
- PERFORMANCE: Our latest fund performance figures as at 31 March 2011.
Don't Forget Dividends! – 27 March 2012
The market for dividends is a relatively new one, but it has been dividends that have been driving equity returns for years.
When investors think about long term returns from equities they tend to think about whether the price is going to fall or rise, yet when we look at bonds the focus is entirely on the yield or coupon. This is understandable. Investment is complex. We use heuristics, or rules of thumb, when we make decisions, but these heuristics tend to be based not on analysis of returns but on the information that flows to us. When it comes to stock market investment, that information flow tends to be concentrated in media stories, which will naturally focus on short term fluctuations. The result is that, as investors, we tend to neglect the drivers of longer term returns, namely dividends.
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Japan: This time it's different, seriously! – 13 March 2012
As the first anniversary of the Great East Japan Earthquake passes, Japan is once again in the spotlight, however, this time it was a Valentine’s Day present from the Bank of Japan (BoJ) in the form of Japanese style quantitative easing that has elevated Japan back onto the radar of investors.
Although the increase in the asset purchase program is indeed a welcome boost, perhaps the more interesting point to note from the announcement was the change in tone from the BoJ in terms of its inflation target. For more than 20 years, Japan has wallowed in a deflationary environment, curbing retail sales, dampening wage growth and generally casting a malaise over what was once forecast to become the world’s greatest economy, whilst rivals elsewhere have pushed onwards.
Hot Topic - After the deal - 12 March 2012
After prolonged wrangling, Greece has concluded the terms of the debt writedown that private bondholders will suffer.
While voluntary participation was high, it was not high enough to pass the deal without triggering measures recently inserted into Greek law (Collective Action Clauses or CACs) that force the same terms on those holding out for a better deal. The net conclusion of the deal will be to wipe around €100bn from Greece’s €350bn of outstanding debt.
Tristan Hanson shares his thoughts in this latest Hot Topic.
Hot Topic - From India first hand
The last couple of days have seen a flurry of news on important State election results in India. Luckily we have one of the team on the ground in India at this time - Craig Farley reports.
From a positioning perspective we have been slightly underweight India within the Chindia Fund, but perhaps more importantly our positioning has remained relatively defensive, with a focus on quality. This, we believe, will leave us well placed if we see some election result disappointment. That said, these results only strengthen India's long term story - voters strongly backing progressive parties with a focus on growth. And growth is key to the India story, a fact that the government in the centre must fully grasp.
Click here to read our on the ground reaction
Hot Topic - India Outlook
The fog finally lifted late last week, ending several days of chaos and misery for travellers across the UK, and restoring a much needed sense of normality. A parallel can be drawn with India’s equity market, which endured a miserable 2011 but has rebounded strongly and is currently amongst the best performing Asian markets year to date. Record foreign flows, aided by a global liquidity binge, have played their part, but more significant factors are also at work.
On the face of it, a strong domestic demand story should have equated to respectable performance relative to global indices during a turbulent 2011, yet the market was sharply de-rated as several chinks in India’s suit of armour were simultaneously exposed. A dearth of capital inflows, and a particularly sharp depreciation of the rupee through the fourth quarter, exacerbated pressure on the twin deficits, whilst sticky non-core inflation resulted in a longer-than-expected tightening cycle. The death knell was government paralysis, self-inflicted by a hapless Congress Party plagued by corruption and political infighting, hampering any chance of much needed structural reforms. Yet it now appears that sentiment is shifting, following crucial recent developments.
Hot Topic - Slipping on Greece... again!
Euro-area finance ministers have provisionally ‘agreed’ to release the second tranche of the bailout fund (€130bn) to Greece, on condition that the Greek sovereign debt, which currently stands at 160% to GDP is reduced to 121% by 2020.
The reason for the poor market response is the fact that key aspects are yet to be finalised. So after 13 hours of talks, many medium and short-term issues have yet to be resolved. The IMF debt sustainability report (calling on debt holders to take a 53.5% haircut on the nominal face value of their Greek bonds) implies a required 95% participation rate by investors in order to avoid triggering a ‘collective action clause’ (CAC) – a clause that imposes losses on investors who don’t support the debt swap losses.
Ashburton’s Perspective – January 2012 edition
Ashburton's Perspective January 2012
In this edition:
- WELCOME: Phew! What a year - By Peter Bourne.
- OUTLOOK: May you live in interesting times - By Tristan Hanson and Derry Pickford
- GLOBAL EQUITIES: Diversification in uncertain times - By Veronika Pechlaner and Nick Lee
- MULTI ASSET - Multi Asset Investing - by Tom Zambon
- NEWS: A new additiion to the Asset Allocation team and another has a close shave for charity!
- PERFORMANCE: Our latest fund performance figures as at 31 December 2011.
Central Banks Q&A - 5 December 2011
Ashburton's view
How bad had European dollar funding got?
Dollar funding costs for European banks was becoming increasingly expensive. The cross-currency basis swaps chart indicates how expensive USD borrowing had become for European banks. (The swap measures the difference between Euribor and how much is paid on the Euro leg of the swap). The difference had broken 100 bps for the first time since 2008.
Why is the Fed saving Europe?
It isn’t. This certainly helps the European banking system and has been a massive boost to sentiment but it doesn’t solve the debt sustainability issues in the European periphery. Clearly the Fed has a desire to ensure that Europe doesn’t implode but there also is a more selfish interest...
Click to read - Central Bank Q&A 2011
Perspective on China - research paper from the Head of Asset allocation
Tristan Hanson shares his findings folowing a recent visit to the country
The view through the aeroplane window on the approach makesfor a faintly depressing sight. A dense smog hangs over the suburbs in the dawn light. The blue roofs of low level industrial buildings cover a vast area of city outskirts, punctuated by complexes of high
rise apartment blocks. 6.30am and the roads are already busy as the
city goes to work. On the ground and into the magnificence of the
gleaming, state-of-the-art airport. Welcome to Beijing.
These are the findings from my research trip to China and Hong
Kong. I must emphasise from the start that these reflections by
no means lay claim to any great expertise on China or to being an
“old China hand”. Indeed, the first realisation on arriving in China
is how little one knows! But, hopefully, these missives will at least
share with readers what I have learnt on the trip and provide some
food for thought.
Santa coming to Chinatown - 1 December 2011
Chinese policy makers show they mean business
Children in Germany are busily preparing for the arrival of St Nicholas on the evening of 5th December and will look forward to waking up to sweets and coins overflowing their freshly polished shoes. Investors will also receive a treat on the 5th December, with the announcement that China’s Central Bank will cut the reserve requirement ratio by 50bps on that day.
Whilst some regard this cut as earlier than anticipated, it is a clear signal from the Chinese policy makers that they mean business in terms of trying to protect growth. Since August 2011 the government has sought to engineer a credit growth slowdown which has lead to tightening liquidity conditions, effectively resulting in an estimated RMB900bn of liquidity being withdrawn from the financial system. Coupled with a depressed global macro economic situation, it is evident that the government now believe that the easing undertaken thus far has been insufficient to ensure a soft landing. This ratio trimming should lead to improved bank lending capacity, and will approximate to RMB350bn being injected into the system.
Moral hazard or morally indefensible? - 24 November 2011
Our latest view on Europe
The hard-line stance taken by Germany and the ECB is pushing Europe to the brink. Given current market dynamics, if the current policy stance is maintained for several months longer then a deeper crisis, including a break-up of the euro-area, becomes an increasing possibility.
Chancellor Merkel's current policy line is inconsistent with her rhetoric that the euro must be saved. Europe's sovereign debt markets are in the midst of a self-fulfilling crisis: if investors believe debt dynamics are unsustainable then such views can become reality as borrowing costs rise, regardless of what anyone previously thought of a country's fundamentals.
Click to read: Europe update 24-Nov-2011
Ashburton’s Perspective – October 2011 edition
Will Greece leave Euope in ruins?
In this edition:
- WELCOME: Perfect storm - By Peter Bourne.
- OUTLOOK: Euro crisis - the end of the beginning? - By Tristan Hanson
- INNOVATION - CHINA: Why this country is innovating at an incredible rate - By Jonathan Schiessl
- INNOVATION - US: Technological innovation in the US car industry - by Nick Skiming
- PENSIONS: Why Ashburton’s funds could meet your pension requirements – by Gavin Fraser
- NEWS: We look back at Ashburton’s latest South African roadshow and acknowledge our recent marathon runners.
- PERFORMANCE: Our latest fund performance figures as at 30 September 2011.
Euro crisis: the beginning of the end? - 13 October 2011
“This is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end, but it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning…”
Winston Churchill, 1942
It is a surreal world we live in when investors are glued to their screens awaiting parliamentary votes in Slovakia, with the future of the euro-zone and global financial markets in the balance. More depressing, yet no less surreal, is the reality that even before the latest crisis-fighting measures are approved, there is widespread agreement that they are inadequate and must be enhanced.
The votes this week surround the amended EFSF(1) which was proposed back in June and July this year. Back then Europe's Leaders agreed to boost the fund's lending capacity to €440bn (from €255bn) and broaden its scope to include acting on a precautionary basis, recapitalising banks and intervening in government bond markets. We argued then that the amended EFSF was insufficient to resolve the European crisis. Recent events have made that this abundantly clear...
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China - that feeling of déjà vu...5 October 2011
We thought it high time we put our head back above the parapet, and communicate with our clients and investors about the torrid last few months that our Chindia Equity Fund has endured. Emerging markets (and particularly Asian emerging markets) have been taken to the cleaners thus far this year, even though the epicentre of the latest financial and political storm lies far away. However, what has prompted us to put pen to paper now is the more recent hysteria concerning China and its supposedly imminent collapse.
Indeed, the last couple of weeks certainly do remind me of October 2008, not only in the unrelenting selling of stocks, but also the recent appearance of a deluge of reports from brokerage analysts out-competing each other in their predictions of doom for the Chinese economy. I think, on this basis, it is useful to briefly remind ourselves of the situation in China in 2008 and to see what lessons we can learn from the subsequent events afterwards....
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Recent Weakness in Global Markets - 23 September 2011
Comment on the recent weakness in global markets
Financial markets have suffered a widespread deterioration in sentiment in recent days. Global equities have declined sharply and emerging market assets have been hit particularly hard, leading to an abrupt rally in the US dollar against most currencies.
At the forefront of concerns are prospects for weaker economic growth, the ongoing European debt crisis and a fear that policymakers are running low on ammunition with which to fight a further slump in the world economy.
While we share some of these concerns, rapid market movements in recent days are suggestive of indiscriminate selling and not likely based on a rational assessment of the fundamental value of financial assets....
Financial Markets Turmoil - 8 August 2011
Comment on the recent turmoil in financial markets
Financial market confidence has been knocked severely during the past week with equity markets posting sharp declines around the world. Over the weekend, further negative news came with the announcement that Standard & Poor's has downgraded the US debt rating from AAA to AA+.
What caused the latest crisis?
Poor US economic data have sparked fears of a looming recession just as America's debt-ceiling fiasco and the latest (and still inadequate) European rescue package have further undermined confidence in the world's leaders.
With $2.4trn of deficit cuts now coming in the US, there is also a growing sense that policymakers are out of ammunition....
Europe's grand bargain still falls short
The EU Summit announcement last Thursday was a positive surprise for markets.
European leaders have crossed the Rubicon of (voluntarily) imposing losses on the private sector in the latest Greek bailout. This marks the first sovereign default in Western Europe since the 1940s.
Will it work?
As Wolfgang Munchau has argued in the FT (“The eurozone crisis is on pause, not over”, 24 July 2011) the effectiveness of the new package must be judged in terms of (i) the implications for Greek solvency and (ii) its capacity to prevent contagion.
While undoubtedly a step in the right direction, the new measures are insufficient to guarantee an end to the eurozone crisis.
Ashburton’s Perspective – July 2011 edition
In this edition:
- WELCOME: by Peter Bourne.
- ENERGY: European Power -The Blue Age. By Alan Le Maistre
- TECHNOLOGY: What’s old in tech. New versus old companies. By Jonathan Aldrich-Blake
- CURRENCIES: An appetite for ‘burgernomics’. By Luke Gale
- OUTLOOK: A perilous accent – By Tristan Hanson
- NEWS: Sunset Concerts 2011, Ashburton’s upcoming conferences and the Multi Asset Funds reach 5.
- PERFORMANCE: Our latest fund performance figures as at 30 June 2011.
Update on Quantitative Easing – 23 June 2011
The QE2 Conundrum
Has the Fed's "quantitative easing" or the latest QE2 been successful? If the answer is that its intention was just to underpin financial confidence, and to push up asset prices, then the answer has to be yes.
It can be argued that a further round of Quantitative Easing will just continue this reflation in asset prices but, more dangerously, lead to a reversal in what the policy is actually trying to achieve; namely create conditions for employment growth and thus stimulate spending, thereby reinvigorating the US economy.
Update on China and India – 26 May 2011
"Summer doldrums…then what?"
Usually May and the summer months of the Northern Hemisphere are seasonally the cruellest of months for the investor. Unfortunately it seems that this year is conforming to the customary script, and thus we thought it appropriate to update our investors of our current thinking and action in the emerging giants of China and India.
We have been saying for some time now that the world has a schizophrenic view of China - it is either too hot, too cold but very rarely just the right temperature…"
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Ashburton's Perspective – April 2011 edition
In this edition:
- WELCOME: Peter Bourne looks back on what has been a volatile quarter for the global economy
- OUTLOOK: Looking deeper reveals strong foundations – By Tristan Hanson
- FOCUS 1: Splitting the facts from fiction in Japan – by Simon Finch
- FOCUS 2: Soft Commodities and Long-run Cycles by Hugh Peyman
- NEWS: Further success for Ashburton's Funds and our involvement in Jersey's elite rugby programme
- PERFORMANCE: Our latest fund performance figures as at 31 March 2011.
Fund in focus: Japan Equity Fund - 4 April 2011
Spotlight on Japan Equity Fund - April 2011
Our Japan Equity Fund Managers Jonathan Schiessl and Simon Finch provide their insights on the recent natural disaster on Japan's economy.
- The tragic events in Japan have been well covered by the media, but can we believe everything we read?
- How quickly can the Japanese people 'bounce back' from this tragic event?
- Is now the time to invest in Japan?
"China's glass is half full – we are drinking!" – 28 March 2011
As we said goodbye to 2010 and welcomed 2011, our view from the Asia desk was that reasonable equity returns could be achieved this year but that the fragile state of the global economy would lead to a difficult and testing market environment.
As the first quarter draws to a close, Mr. Market has digested a plethora of Black Swans in the shape of civil wars, riots and revolutions and the latest tragedy in Japan, a situation which continues to remain fluid. Given the alarming frequency of these events…
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Japan Earthquake Update – 15 March 2011
According to contacts out there now, the situation on the ground remains of a nation in deep shock. There are now power cuts impacting most of the populous, the telephone networks are patchy at best and transport remains a nightmare. Obviously, all eyes remain on the nuclear nightmare unfolding to the world's eyes.
Whilst it seems they are doing all and more to alleviate the situation, there is a deep well of mistrust as a whole towards the nuclear authorities, due to incidents of cover-up in the past. I am not sure they are in a position to hide anything at the moment….
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European Equity Fund Retains Morningstar Award – 9 March 2011
Fund named 'Best Europe Large Cap Fund' for second year in a row
Ashburton has once again been recognised for its consistent performance and active investment philosophy. The Ashburton European Equity Fund won the Morningstar Category Award for 'Best Europe Large Cap Fund' at the annual Morningstar Fund Awards, held in Cape Town on Wednesday 9 March.
ECB rates: New Normal? Or just back to the Old Normal? – 7 March 2010
European interest rates are on the way up. That was the message from Jean-Claude Trichet at Thursday's ECB meeting. It now appears likely that next month the ECB will be the first of the G3 (US, EU, JPN) central banks to raise interest rates in this cycle. The news was a shock to the market. German 2-year yields rose 23bps and 5-year yields were up 20bps.
So where does this now leave the European bond market?
Hat-trick of Raging Bull Awards for Ashburton – 26 January 2011
Euro Asset Management Fund wins Raging Bull Award for third consecutive year
Our Euro Asset Management Fund has once again achieved recognition for 'Best offshore global asset allocation fund' at South Africa's Raging Bull Awards held in Johannesburg on 26 January 2011.
The Fund achieved the highest PlexCrown ranking in its respective category for the third year running….
Ashburton's Perspective – January 2011 edition
In this edition:
- WELCOME: Peter Bourne assesses an encouraging end to an up-and-down year, and looks ahead to what 2011 has to offer.
- OUTLOOK: A reassessment of equity risk? – By Tristan Hanson
- EUROPE: European Equities - getting ready to rerate – By Richard Robinson
- CHINDIA: Inflation-control the key to unlocking opportunity – By Jonathan Schiessl
- AMERICAS: US recovery is 'almost' inevitable – By Nick Skiming
- SA FOCUS: Investing Abroad – By David Christie
- NEWS: A round up of what's been going on at Ashburton over the last few months.
- PERFORMANCE: latest fund performance figures as at 31 December 2010.
The US engineering revolution – 13 December 2010
Amid the debris of the US recession, the evolvement of the once proud US car and engineering industry over the past year has been creeping into the consciousness of investors. It is not so much the fact that both Ford and General Motors are now enjoying higher sales after their fall from grace in 2009, but a new revolution is upon us which investors may ignore at their peril…
Irish bailout? – 17 November 2010
How important is a successful Irish bailout to the outlook for European equities?
As Ireland's drama unfolds the markets have shifted their focus from concerns over US QE2 to European sovereign risk. Whilst, the ensuing weakening of the euro would, on the face of it, favour European exporters – and the financial sector, of course, will likely take the brunt of the fall. The initial reaction would not be positive for the stock market in general and any threat of a true delinquency would likely lead to a highly correlated, equity market sell-off…
Touchdown in Tokyo – 2 November 2010
The revitalisation of the Japanese Tourism Industry
In 2003, Japan welcomed a little over 5.2m visitors to the bustling streets of Tokyo and the temples of Kyoto, with that year witnessing the launch of the 'Visit Japan' campaign. This campaign was tasked with boosting visitor numbers to 10m by 2010, and pushing arrivals to 25m by 2020. Initial expectations are positive, with Japan on track to hit their target…
Pumping the Brakes – 21 October 2010
Despite all that is going on in the world, China has once again dominated media coverage over the past week. We would like to take this opportunity to give our view from the Asia desk and dispel some of the worries that are currently circulating in the press…
1) 'A currency war is imminent'.
The economic and political reality is at odds from the hysterical headlines we have been subjected to…..
Ashburton's Perspective – October 2010 edition
Tune in to the right frequency
Making sense of financial noise
In this edition:
- WELCOME: Peter Bourne assesses the ever-changing financial markets over the last quarter and introduces the articles of this edition.
- OUTLOOK: Making sense of financial noise – By Tristan Hanson
- FOCUS 1: Actively investing behind global change – By Veronika Pechlaner
- FOCUS 2: Behavioural Finance: To Err is Human – By Philippa Huckle
- NEWS: A round up of what's been going on at Ashburton over the last few months.
- PERFORMANCE: Our latest fund performance figures as at 30 September 2010.
Surviving Austerity – 24 September 2010
How cancer's "penicillin moment" could save struggling governments billions
It is estimated that almost half of the $292bn spent on prescription drugs in the US in 2008 went to medications that didn't help patients. A potential tectonic shift is taking place in medicine and as a result, global governments seeking greater efficiency through austerity measures may benefit from massive cost cutting and efficiency gains within their healthcare systems.
Whitepaper series: September 2010
US Government Bonds: no bubble, but not much value either
The phenomenal performance of bonds globally raises the question of whether today's low bond yields are evidence of a bubble. This paper addresses this topic with regard to the valuation of US treasuries.
Ashburton's Perspective – July 2010 edition
May the balloon keep on rising
In this edition:
- WELCOME: Peter Bourne looks back at a difficult few months for global markets and introduces the articles.
- OUTLOOK: The double dip debate - By Tristan Hanson
- FOCUS 1: Black tides – By Richard Robinson
- FOCUS 2: Capitalism 4.0 – By Anatole Kaletsky
- NEWS: A round up of what's been going on at Ashburton over the last few months.
- PERFORMANCE: Our latest fund performance figures as at 30 June 2010.
China - dispelling the myths – 28 May 2010
There are currently various articles in circulation discussing China and its imminent collapse. As I've just returned from China this gives me an opportunity to comment on some of the universal Chinese concerns. The main points of the articles in question being:
• China's stimulus was enacted so quickly that it must be wasteful - examples were given (the ghost town of Ordos and empty shopping centres) highlighting inefficient allocation of resources.
US oil spill - 16 May 2010
The BP oil spill means the entire industry will have to deal with the cost, and with tighter regulation – end of story.
At this stage Obama is compiling a rapidly put together piece of legislation for oil company liability. It is expected to be quite extensive and may also encompass costs to fishermen for hindering their ability to earn a living whilst an oil spill is being cleaned up. In addition, our understanding is that the law has capped BP's current liability to just US $75 million, but US lawmakers have proposed raising the cap to $10 billion.
Ashburton's Perspective – April 2010 edition
In this edition:
- OUTLOOK: Keeping a steady course - By Tristan Hanson
- FOCUS 1: Computing heads to the clouds – By Jonathan Schiessl
- FOCUS 2: Turning the tide on Japanese politics – By Simon Finch
- NEWS: Details of our South African conferences and a successful start to 2010 for Ashburton.
- PERFORMANCE: Our latest fund performance figures as at 31 March 2010
Fund in Focus: Japan Equity Fund
Spotlight on Japan Equity Fund - April 2010
- What differentiates Ashburton from other Japanese funds investors?
- Do Toyota's problems mean the end for Japan?
- What are your current thoughts on Japanese valuations?
Our Japan Equity Fund Managers Jonathan Schiessl and Simon Finch provide their insights into Japan's economy and areas of investment potential on the back of recent trips to the country.
A view from the US - 6 April 2010
The US economy is transitioning from a "stimulus-led" recovery to one that is sustainable, driven by income growth and business spending. It was the collapse in business spending that turned a severe recession into the worst US downturn since the Great Depression. However, business confidence is now returning as evidenced by the surge in spending on equipment and software in the fourth quarter of 2009. This is also supportive of jobs growth and in our view a pick-up in hiring is around the corner…
Multi Asset investing – a panacea for our times – 15 March 2010
The promise of a better year in financial markets during 2010 seemed to come unstuck just a few short weeks into the year. Should we have been surprised? Certainly, the threats to market stability that surfaced in late January were on the radar screen at year-end. On top of Chinese efforts to cool their economy, and the strong regulatory attack on the banking sector launched by President Barack Obama, we have had to endure the ongoing drama…..
Fund in Focus: Asset allocation
Spotlight on Asset allocation - February 2010
- What is the outlook for the global economy in 2010?
- How are the Ashburton Multi Asset and Fixed Income funds positioned?
- What are the major risks?
Our Investment Strategist, Tristan Hanson provides his outlook for 2010 and the thinking behind current asset allocation. He also discusses any risks that may lay ahead.
Ashburton's Perspective – January 2010 edition
In this edition:
- OUTLOOK: Outlook for 2010 - By Tristan Hanson
- FOCUS: Keeping an eye on Asia – By Jonathan Schiessl
- PRODUCTS: Bespoke Portfolio Service – By Alexander Ellis, Risk adjusted returns – By Tristan Hanson
- NEWS: A round up of what's been going on at Ashburton over the last few months.
- PERFORMANCE: Our latest fund performance figures as at 31 December 2009.
Obama's Freshman Year - 23 November 2009
President Barack Obama has just passed the one year anniversary of his election. Having been given the hospital pass from George Bush, what has he achieved in his freshman year in office? Undoubtedly, his Everest to climb is the problems that face the US economy. When he won the election unemployment was rising, Lehman's had gone bust, AIG had been bailed out, the credit markets were frozen and the housing bubble had burst…
Fund in Focus: European Equity Fund
Spotlight on European Equity Fund - November 2009
- What longer-term themes do we currently have conviction on?
- What is a European Fund doing looking at Australian Liquid Natural Gas?
- Thoughts for the fourth quarter and 2010
Our European Equities team, Richard Robinson, Veronika Pechlaner and Alan Le Maistre, provide their thoughts on current investment themes & opportunitiesfor the future.
Ashburton's Perspective – October 2009 edition
Also in this edition:
- WELCOME: Peter Bourne speaks of the sustained economic recovery over the last six months and the shift in investor needs.
- OUTLOOK: The search for yield - by Nick Lee
- FOCUS 1: Crude Oil - Back to the future -By Veronika Pechlaner
- FOCUS 2: Dollar weakness creates Asian currency bargains - By Tristan Hanson
- NEWS: The new QROPS 'Directus' initiative from FirstRand Trustees, Ashburton's platform listings and some team success in the Jersey marathon.
- PERFORMANCE: Our latest fund performance figures as at 30 September 2009.
Fund in Focus: Chindia Equity Fund
Spotlight on China - October 2009
- Is China in a bubble?
- China - buyer not supplier?
- Is the economic recovery sustainable?
Chindia Fund Managers, Jonathan Schiessl and Craig Farley, provide their insight on the Chinese economy...
China – 'A Goldilocks Liquidity Result' - 15 October 2009
We vehemently disagree with the view that China is in 'bubble' territory but there is no doubt that the market is hot as far as current investor interest is concerned, reflecting the crucial role the economy is playing in the global recovery. September's macro data has just been released, generating plenty of debate amongst commentators regarding potential policy ramifications…
Petrolhead economics! - 02 October 2009
The recession and financial crisis has brought about a plethora of initiatives to kick start the US economy. However, amongst all the headline grabbing measures to save the US economy from a depression like era, the measure which has almost been lauded as saving the car industry and getting growth on track has been the recently heralded "Cash for Clunkers" stimulus package or CARS Act (Consumer Assistance to Recycle and Save bill).....
Some musings one year on - 21 September 2009
We have finally reached the first year anniversary of the Lehman's debacle. Markets have recovered 60% from their March 2009 lows and bond and credit yields have begun to normalise. On almost every front, the economic indicators are signalling recovery....
A new dawn in Japan - 01 September 2009
Blink and you would have missed the stock market's reaction to Japan's momentous election result over the weekend. On the day following the result the Nikkei actually fell 0.39% (31 August). For those of you following broader Asian markets I'm sure you will remember earlier this year the extraordinary reaction on 18 May of India's markets to the decisive Congress Party's election victory. The Sensex gained over 17% in a little under two minutes. To say Japan's reaction was somewhat more muted is an understatement of titanic proportions…
"If you can keep your head when all about you are losing theirs..." - 20 August 2009
After a strong start to the year for most Asian markets, Chinese and China related equity markets have been falling since the start of August. So what is spooking markets in supposedly rapidly recovering China?
Ashburton's Perspective – July 2009 edition
Is the glass half full? – Q&A featuring Tristan Hanson, Craig Farley and Anatole Kaletsky
Our expert panel discusses the key issues facing investors today.
Also in this edition:
- WELCOME: Anticipation is the name of the game. A mid-year pause and capacity for surprise and disappointment
- OUTLOOK: Our panel look at the big questions facing the global economy.
- FOCUS 1: Chindia Rising. Asia may be the driver for global growth.
- FOCUS 2: The case for Managed Income Funds. Whoever thought bonds were boring, think again.
- NEWS: New CEO for FirstRand, Ashburton supports coastline appeal with sunset concerts.
- PERFORMANCE: Our latest Fund performance figures as at 30 June 2009.
India – 'Calm down dear, it's just a correction'
Today's Budget announcement by Finance Minister Mukherjee clearly fell short of market expectations. Indeed, the index move (MSCI India -5.8%) suggests not only disappointment but almost a policy blunder by the government in failing to address concerns over the economy's fiscal stability. Most of the speech focused on the expenses rather than the revenue side of the balance sheet and many economists…
India Reignited
Surprise, surprise – it seems that every single Indian political analyst/commentator and opinion poll specialist got it wrong - again! It would appear that not a single person predicted the extraordinary election victory the Congress Party has just achieved.
Ashburton's Perspective - April 2009 edition
Will you join the dance? – By Tristan Hanson
Now might be the time for investors to put on their dancing shoes
Also in this edition:
- WELCOME: The Spring has sprung…Encouraging data from the US and China is providing optimism.
- FOCUS: Japan: Basket-case revisited. It is premature to write off Japan completely.
- PRODUCTS: Fortune favours the brave. Why multi asset funds may favour the brave investor.
- NEWS: Ashburton wins a Raging Bull Award and is named a Top Performer.
- PERFORMANCE: Our latest Fund performance figures as at 31 March 2009.
Ashburton's Perspective - January edition
Obama's crucial gamble – By Tristan Hanson
The new US President is forced to act in the face of the biggest recession the world has seen in decades.
Also in this edition:
- Review: Looking into the co-ordinated monetary stimulus by the worlds major economies.
- Outlook: "If you can keep your head when all about you are losing theirs..."
- News: Our new addition to the team and a look at our new website.
- Performance: Our latest Fund performance figures as at 31 December 2008.
Red turning to blue – Obama's inauguration
With red turning to blue on the 20 January, the Democratic leaders have been hard at work devising legislation to remedy America's economic woes. The Democrats position in the House of Representatives and the Senate, means that there is a high expectation of a follow through on election promises, and that some serious policy decisions will finally be acted upon.
An investment guide to joining the RAT race
There is a pension revolution going on in Jersey right now, and it's one that might affect every one of us for the rest of our lives. Changes in the pension law in Jersey have allowed the introduction of Retirement Annuity Trusts, a title which has been abbreviated to the unfortunately named RAT. Quite simply, a RAT offers further choice and flexibility to Islanders who want to be in control of their own pension pot, both before and after they retire.